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title
飛俠ㄚ達鍊金工坊
description
記錄個人投資心得用，賺錢請分我一半，賠錢請自己看著辦。
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2026-02-22 11:56:38
raw text
飛俠ㄚ達鍊金工坊 skip to main | skip to sidebar 飛俠ㄚ達鍊金工坊 記錄個人投資心得用，賺錢請分我一半，賠錢請自己看著辦。 星期日, 2月 28, 2016 常用檔案下載 https://www.dropbox.com/s/9pw5kg7kdx5pzyx/liu.rar?dl=0 https://www.dropbox.com/s/9ikmte3u8grwbvz/xliu.zip?dl=0 張貼者： 謝 於 星期日, 2月 28, 2016 0 意見 標籤： 網路資源 星期六, 1月 30, 2016 猜底部轉折的勝率&報酬率 猜底部轉折的勝率&報酬率 去年4月台股從萬點下殺，中途歷經7203反彈8871又再下殺，如果猜的沒錯的話，今年的某月某日會是熊市底部， 為了計算方便，假設1年有200個交易日，成功猜中某隻股票的機率就是0.005，如果投資組合共有10檔股票， 那要成功加碼在這10檔底部的機率就是0.005^10， 如果有誰號稱他作的到，那他應該是經常中樂透頭獎的人吧。 標的物只要長期沒有倒閉的疑慮，且本業是賺錢的， 只要持股時間拉長， 以股價100元，平均股息5元， 持股五年之後就能把成本降到75元， 而中途遇到熊市，就可用股息和平時的本業收入再降低成本， 熊市結束之後就是牛市， 持股市值就會再度回昇， 而股息總收入也會隨著熊市增持股數而提昇， 這樣的戰法，理論上比不過高點大減碼然後低點又大加碼的人， 但重點在於能大幅提高勝率， 因為要成功判斷高點又剛好減碼會跌的股票，然後又再成功判斷低點又剛好加碼會漲的股票， 從機率來看，愈多的變數要全部達成，成功機率就會愈低，就像樂透42選6一樣，看起來很簡單， 但連續6個號碼都對，就不是那麼容易的事。 與其將投資計劃架構在低勝率高報酬的策略， 倒不如將吃不到的高報酬調低， 讓勝率提高， 讓持股週期拉長，用股息來自動降低成本， 熊市時用股息和薪水來分批低接股息優沃且低倒閉機率的標的物， 讓時間站在自己這邊， 牛市時就又大豐收了。 ***********2016/2/7補充************* 標的物只要長期沒有倒閉的疑慮，且本業是賺錢的， 只要持股時...
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