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Econbrowser | Analysis of current economic conditions and policy Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy Menu Skip to content Guest Contribution: “Underlying Inflation and Asymmetric Risks” Leave a reply Today we present a guest post written by Danilo Leiva-León (European Central Bank), Hervé Le Bihan (Bank of France) and Matías Pacce (Bank of Spain). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Bank of France, Bank of Spain, European Central Bank or the Eurosystem. Continue reading → This entry was posted on September 28, 2023 by Menzie Chinn . Recession Forecasts with and without Debt-Service Ratio Leave a reply In a previous post , I presented forecasts of recession based on probit models using term spread plus short rate, and term spread plus short rate, foreign term spread and debt service ratio. The latter only went of to 2024M03 since BIS only pub...
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