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title
iPredict
description
image
site name
author
updated
2026-02-16 12:08:19
raw text
iPredict skip to main | skip to sidebar Monday, February 23, 2009 Temperatures update As I've noted a couple of times, the prices on TEMP.2009.HIGH stock are very high when compared to any reasonable forecasting model. In previous posts , I used a variety of methods to forecast the 2009 temperature anomaly based only on the time series. A model using only a nonlinear time trend (year and year squared) and lagged temperature variables explains about 84% of the variation in the time series. Based on that model, it looked like there was no more than a 5% chance that 2009 would be warm enough to beat 1998. We now have the global average temperature anomaly for January. Let's add it to the model and see what comes up. The first way I did it was to use my model to predict January temperatures. That model provides a much worse fit than the one predicting annual temperatures, but that's to be expected. The model's predicted January temperature is spot-on: the model predi...
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