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title
THE CO-OP
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A New Zealand Commentary Collective
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THE CO-OP
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2026-02-28 08:48:56
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THE CO-OP | A New Zealand Commentary Collective Menu Home About Authors Comment Policy Search for: Skip to content THE CO-OP A New Zealand Commentary Collective Projection of special votes for 2017 Posted on September 24, 2017 by Chuan-Zheng Lee One nerdy post-election exercise I find fun is to project (not “predict”) the result including special votes, based on the 2017 preliminary results and the impact of the 2014 special votes. The most significant assumption I make is that the relationship between special votes and the preliminary count in 2014, is a good predictor for the same relationship in 2017. Now, this isn’t a great assumption: in 2014, the Greens actually did even better than projected , and National worse. But it’ll probably provide some guidance. A full description of the method is in the post I wrote for the 2014 election . This election, special votes comprise 15.4% of the total votes cast, compared to 12.6% in 2014. This fact is ac...
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