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齐观天下 齐观天下 Wednesday, May 21, 2008 temporary posted by Teck Chi at 9:34 AM 2 comments Thursday, August 16, 2007 阿都拉的经济成绩单 近半年由一系列大型基建工程和企业合并计划所营造的大马经济 “美好感觉”，已遭加剧的美国次级房贷风暴一一吹灭。这几天 ，政府高官早已经不敢再宣扬大马股市荣景代表了经济的现实状况 ，反而一再强调，股市大跌只是金融问题，而大马经济依然有强劲的基 本面。 他们的反复说词，揭露了这一次荣景其实只是不具实质经济基础支撑的 假性繁荣。股市内频频创新高的股价和交易，只能反映金融市场的气氛 ，却不一定和实质经济有关联。 股市荣景下的投机活动象征着产业拥有权的活跃转让 ，从价差中赚取盈利。当股市升至最高点后，最后一个傻瓜将是承受股 市下滑亏损的人。这类活动不具生产性，无法衍生出更多具经济效益的 资产和原料，让整体产能能继续扩张下去。 清醒的学者其实在之前就已曾发出振聋发聩的真知灼见 ，提醒民众这只是非理性的假象。 曾在马大任教的经济学家佐摩就曾强调，股市无法反映大马的实质经济 发展，因此不应成为衡量大马经济的指标。不过，处在体制之内的国家 银行总裁洁蒂却要到泡沫点破之后，才能提醒大众股市起伏波动 ，并不一定能反映整体国家经济的走向。 政府此前一再放大股市荣景反映国家经济走向，背后有其政治利益的考 量。阿都拉政府上任以来，其经济政绩是非常苍白的 。他所强调的农业领域发展受惠于国际原产品市场的高涨 ，才会显得一片荣景。不过，大马整体经济的转型却显得缓慢无力 ，处在不上不下之间，皆无力应对底价劳工国的竞争 ，也缺乏高价值的产业。 因此，阿都拉政府就以恰巧降临的股市荣景作为其执政 4 年来最大的经济政绩，并大力刺激股市内的非理性气氛 ，企图满足城市选民对国家经济表现的期望。但是，随着股市因为美国 次级房贷风暴而大幅波动，阿都拉政府已难以利用股市荣景支撑其苍白 的政绩。 但是，这不意味他们会就此清醒，认真解决大马经济的实质问题 。阿都拉依然会通过四个区域的特别发展计划，陆续发放更多基建工程 ，试图以此力挽狂澜，维持国家经济发展。不过，佐摩此前就已曾提醒 ，庞大投资额并不必然也能...
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