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I’m just going to one-shot this and much of it may be irrelevant in a few weeks (and as early as a few hours after I publish it). But enough people have asked me for some thoughts so here’s where I stand on Saturday April 5th ~4pm EST.I will assume you are aware of the administration’s proposed measures.For context and so you can assess any bias you believe I may have, here is some of what I said on Jan 1.Politics aside, immigration is a key driver of labor market dynamics – if Trump ends up moving forward with policies that reverse (or to a lesser extent slow) the labor supply increases we’ve seen, then we should see weaker demand and upward pressure on wages. At the same time, he’s consistently spoken about implementing tariffs, which raises a set of new questions:How will these tariffs affect business sentiment & investment in today’s economy?What share of the higher costs do corporations believe they can pass through to consumers?Generally speaking, with tariffs we can expect the f...
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