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Open Graph

title

Understanding Climate Risk

description

Science, policy and decision-making

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Understanding Climate Risk

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updated

2026-02-27 23:23:26

raw text

Understanding Climate Risk | Science, policy and decision-making Understanding Climate Risk Science, policy and decision-making On simplicity leave a comment » This is a long screed in response to a reading list posted by Massimo Pigliucci (so he bears no responsibility) where he nominated a post on simplicity in science by Elliot Sober on Aeon . Why is simplicity better? As it happens, I am in the midst of an argument with the climate science community over simplicity as applied to statistical inference. A couple of days ago I bought Probability, Confirmation and Simplicity: readings in the the philosophy of inductive logic Foster and Martin 1966, which contains six essays on simplicity. Not as simple as it’s cracked up to be – exactly the ammunition I require. Accordingly, I disagree with Sober. He refers to the Akaike Information Criterion, which measures simplicity but says that it refers to the same underlying reality. But we see it being repeatedly used for dif...

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