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Fixed Income Briefing May 2025
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May has seen US and global yields steepening, particularly after rating agency Moody’s cut the US long term rating to from AAA to Aa1. This was particularly evident in the US when a $16 billion offering of 20-year bonds on 21 May experienced very subdued demand, with the bid to cover ratio at 2.46x, marking the weakest demand since February. This reflects investor apprehension regarding the nation's escalating debt. However, the Fed is widely expected to hold rates at its next meeting on 17-18 June. The FOMC minutes from its 6-7 May meeting revealed Fed policymakers acknowledging they could face difficult tradeoffs in coming months due to rising inflation alongside rising unemployment and financial market volatility. Fed funds futures traders are anticipating 47.7 bps of rate cuts this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is only a 2.3% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the June meeting. A rate cut is now expected at the FOMC 17th September meeting; interest rate swaps assig...
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