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I didn't think President Pedro Castillo would make it through the first quarter of 2023, but I did expect him to survive the impeachment vote scheduled for last week.There were four clear reasons for Castillo to not dissolve Congress prior to last week’s impeachment vote:It wasn't legal for him to do so.He didn't have the political capital.There wasn't an urgent need to do it. He was likely to survive the impeachment vote. He had at least a ten-vote margin according to most people who were counting the votes.If he tried to dissolve Congress, it was fairly clear he would lose the political and legal battle and simply push Congress to remove him sooner rather than later.Castillo didn't have the same analysis of his own situation that I did. He moved forward with trying to dissolve the Congress, implement a government ruling under emergency powers, and called for new legislative elections. Every other democratic institution in Peru turned against him. The police and military stopped follo...
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Boz
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