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created at

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updated at

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Coface Barometer: Lost Illusions, Great Expectations | Coface

excerpt

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The year 2023 began with great enthusiasm, but in all likelihood it will not be the year that most observers were expecting. The 1st half of the year has reinforced some of our convictions:no, inflation will not spontaneously and painlessly return to its 2% target in developed countries;no, central banks will not "pivot" between now and the end of the year;and no, the mere lifting of health restrictions will not enable China to play the role of relay engine for the global economy.Two essential things that the market had lost sight of also came back to the fore: access to abundant, cheap energy remains central to the functioning of the global economic system, and monetary policy has more direct effects on asset valuations and financial stability than on consumer prices.The economic outlook remains closely linked to inflation trends and to the response of central banks, and our forecasts are subject to a number of downside risks, inclu...

author

updated

2025-12-04 04:40:01

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