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https://boz.substack.com/p/five-points-on-petro
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1. Petro won; Hernández lost. Ahead of the election, I said Hernández had a 65% chance to win. Was that wrong or did a 35% event hit? I looked at the numbers the day of the election and this remained Hernández’s race to lose. Maybe there is a reason I should have said Hernández 60% instead of 65%, but the scenarios favored Bucaramanga’s former mayor. I wouldn’t change my prediction; Hernández should have been able to win this race. However, in hindsight with the votes in, it’s clear Hernández underperformed in critical ways, failing to turn out the voters he needed and refusing to invest in the ground game that most campaigns use, instead focusing on social media outreach and a earned media strategy built around his own controversial personality. Meanwhile, Petro over-performed on turning out his supporters, doing basic voter mobilization and coalition building at his strongest levels ever. Petro’s negotiations with political machines and his own ground game to turn out voters deserve ...
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