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thooi.blogspot.com

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Main

id

312646529

name

thooi.blogspot.com · homepage snapshot

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0

processing priority

4

site type

3 (personal blog or private political site, e.g. Blogspot, Substack, also small blogs on own domains)

review version

11

html import

20 (imported)

Events

first seen date

2024-10-12 07:09:47

expired found date

-

created at

2024-10-12 07:09:47

updated at

2025-04-23 19:07:54

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69893241 (blogspot.com)

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Server

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Mainpage statistics

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20

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Open Graph

title

Thoughts........

description

all thoughts from my tiny little brain .....

image

site name

author

updated

2026-03-01 23:44:56

raw text

Thoughts........ Thoughts........ all thoughts from my tiny little brain ..... Wednesday, May 15, 2013 以数据反驳“华人海啸论” 大选过后，巫统掀起了所谓“华人海啸论”导致国阵这次大选惨胜的论调，再加上国内极端非政府组织的推波助澜以及马华总会长“两种族制”论调的附和，仿佛华人应该就国阵选举的折损负上最大的责任。 实情则非如国阵领袖和非政府组织这等目光狭隘及非科学性分析之下所得到的结论。笔者以国阵一向来引以为傲的定存州 – 柔佛来做一个科学化的分析，以便可以得到更中肯的答案。选择柔佛州，因为它可以说是马来西亚半岛的缩影。柔南 – 包括地不佬、新山、埔莱、振林山、巴西古当等国会选区是高度城市化的选区。柔佛东海岸 – 哥打丁宜、丰盛港和边加兰，则是以农业和渔业为主的乡镇地区。而柔北、柔佛内陆选区和柔佛东海岸的笨珍、丹绒比艾则是半城乡地区。 这三种选区合成则形成半岛选区分布的缩影。再加上柔佛州各族群的人口比率接近马来西亚人口的比率，因此以柔佛州州议席的选举成绩作为一个系统分析，可以起到反映半岛选情的杠杆作用。 首先，国阵在柔佛州议席总体的得票率从 2004 年的 77.67% ，降低到 2008 年的 63.29% ，在 2013 再急剧下降到 54.06% 。除了柔佛东海岸乡区的总得票率从 2008 年的 56.29% 上升到 2013 年的 78.93% 以外，国阵这次大选无论在柔南、柔中、柔北和柔佛西海岸的得票率一律平均下降大约 10% ，尤其柔南选区的总体得票率更是跌破 50% ，只有区区的 48.82% 。这个现象说明了，国阵在这过去的三届大选里，只能在绝对乡区的选区里提高本身的支持率，反而在城市地区或者半城乡地区，支持率只有节节败退。所谓过去支配的定存州，现在只不过如大江东去浪淘尽。 再看看这一届大选，柔佛州马来人、华人和印度人选民分别增加了 19.83% 、 16.78% 、以及 29.98% 。我们假设这次大选马来人和印度人全部都支持国阵而华人全部都支持民联，那么在马来人和印度人无论人数总和还是增长率都高过华人的情况下，国阵总体的得票率和 2008 年相比应该呈上升状态。但事实上华裔并不完全都把票投给民联...

Text analysis

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